Define a good sport!

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For a sport, a good duel between rank 1 and rank 20 (the outsider) what odds you would like?

The outsider never wins
4
9%
The outsider wins one time every 500 matches
1
2%
The outsider wins one time every 100 matches
3
7%
The outsider wins one time every 50 matches
6
14%
The outsider wins one time every 10 matches
20
47%
The outsider wins one time every 5 matches
9
21%
 
Total votes: 43

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Define a good sport!

Post by Florent » 16 Feb 2011 15:38

This is a simple question related to sport in general.

For example, in a football match, when it starts, you don't know a lot who is gonna win. You have surely have favorites teams and outsiders, but there are differents odds of wining. In many popular sports, you sometimes see an outsider beats a favorite.

Obviously, when a truely great champion appears, he will change the odds. But the question would remain between the #10 and the number #100 for example.

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Kripke » 16 Feb 2011 15:51

Why is this Topic in "TM2 talk"?^^
btt. I clicked on "The outsider wins one time every 10 matches" because I think, that every team have the chance to win a match (If I compare this with a fotball game ^^).

Ok, in trackmania have you very different teams like fuelspeed, tech, united, whatever. If I compare this with ET-racers in different divisions, you will see that the first division to 99% win against a divisions 10 oder 11^^

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by xis101 » 16 Feb 2011 16:38

It could have to do with a new ladder system in TM2

Edit: When you consider football with 20 teams in a league, I think if #1 plays vs #20, one out of 10 games the outsider should win. With first match and return match, the total outsider wins every 5 years.
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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by smwforever45 » 16 Feb 2011 18:08

I picked "The outsider wins one time every 10 matches" too. There's always a chance that the #1 team plays a bit weaker because they know that they'll win against the #20 team, and then the #20 team boosts up and wins against the #1 team. And there are also other coincidences which can let the outsider win. But the outsider shouldn't win too often, as #1 is still the better team and has better skills than the outsider team. So I'll let the outsider win once every 10 matches, because it's not too much and not too few.

And I think it has a good reason why this topic is in the TM2 forum... I agree with xis101 that this could have to do with a new ladder system for TM2. That's why he asks us how many times a bad player should be able to win against a good player - so something like a handicap/advantage for outsiders.
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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Zooz » 16 Feb 2011 21:29

Outsiders should have a chance to win, but those situations where they win should be the situations where they show the most skill, or when the champion messes up, not some purely luck-based wins. That way it's more impressive to see and it looks like the outsider really earned it. It should still be a fair win.

I would vote 1 in 20 but that's not there, so i pick the closest 1 in 10.

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Florent » 17 Feb 2011 09:06

1 every 100 match means that if there is a match each week between the #1 and #20, it would take nearly two years to finally see the #20 wins. Would I be the spectator that follows the national champion ranked 20, I may get bored to look at the matches. So, if people that answered 1 every 100 would explain to me their vision, I would like to know more about this feeling.

The question can be ask to anybody, even the people who does not know TrackMania. It is just about sport. Commonly, the people answer me between 5 and 10. Don't hesitate to ask around your friend, and especially the ones who loves sport. For me, it is really interesting to know what is a good balance. I truely believe in the future of it and I maybe supported it more than any other studio in the world compared to all of our activity. This is why I also like to identify the best places to improve the situation :) The other place I think there could be geat improvement is in the commentator capacity to do their job at best. I am thinking of the relay delay to enable sound synchro with maniachannel, good picture, camera switch agility and also encouraging the emergence of great commentators. A good story teller with enough occasions for the match to change for each side would be really cool! And to enter this story, as an actor, would then be even more intense.

The community has a great part to play in all this. The greater number of player that will play and watch, the best it will be. But even more important is the number of player that will take a good care of the pillars of a good sport. They are the one to truely enable a game to go much higher.

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by jamie_macdonald » 17 Feb 2011 10:22

One in every ten at least for me, of course as zooz stated above it must be winning for skill reasons.

But then, even for some skilled people one in ten would often be the usual winners "bad run" and not allways down to the outsider showing strong,

It's allways nice to have a chance though, the closer the race/game the better i feel (more chance for all, the merrier)

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Florent » 17 Feb 2011 12:13

I answered 1 / 10, but I think my preference is more between 1/5 and 1/10. If I know there is a tennis quarter of final between the top 20 and top 1, I think I would be more happy to look at the match, if it turns to the advantage of the top 20 one time every 7 times (so I should have answered 5, because it is closer :oops:)

In Bercy, where the first TM world champion were crowned, there is the last tennis master of the ATP season.
They have reduced the number of sets to win to 2. And it changes the chances for a player to win. A swedish guy won here last november and it looks like it has been 10 years since a Swedish guy won any master tennis tournament. source: http://tennis-buzz.com/2010-paris-bercy ... soderling/

I don't say I want tennis to change, but the format can greatly influence the sport environment, and I think we should pay attention to it.

I also like to see people vote for "the outsider never wins" For me, it demonstrates that the community should be more aware that there are different beliefs, and that we need to have constructive discussions about it :pil

Edit: for the story, the french Gael (seed #12) beats the world #1 in semi final, and his beaten in final by Robin (#10)

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by xis101 » 17 Feb 2011 13:25

Some time ago I have read an article about something that matches with this discussion. (can´t find it anymore)
The conclusion of this article was that the propability of an outsiders win decreases with the maximum amount of points gained in this sport.
For example:
It´s more likely that the underdog wins in football (2-3 goals per match) than in icehockey (5-6 goals) or even handball (25-30). Most unlikely is a win of an underdog in basketball with 70-90 points and of course tennis.
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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Florent » 17 Feb 2011 13:53

mathematically, it seems right.

If we applied this math to TM, we would rather look to have less rounds. To compensate on time, we would look for multi lap map. And if we want to keep the same difficulty for runs, we would decrease the lap difficulty in order to have the same one.

This is how we can change the sport environment, without changing the sport itself. And this is why it is really interesting to think about what is a good sport? ^_^

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Zooz » 17 Feb 2011 13:55

But there you missed one huge factor, training time... Longer map = more nolifing required to win. Yes, even on 'easy' maps, although the effect is a bit less there I guess, since people will reach a peak of fastest possible times.
I might make a longer post later, but I didn't sleep :P

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Florent » 17 Feb 2011 13:58

I said "multi lap" map. And since the lap are even easier, maybe it goes in the direction you want.

the goal here is not to enter the debate on what has to be done. The goal is to illustrate that we can think in a really constructive way to reach a good environment for competition. And it starts by defining what are the best parameters for it. The global competitive environment is not yet defined, and I believe it is better to think about it.

so, you can go to sleep and maybe we can open another thread to have your debate, if we talk about TM, but I think it is more important to stay on the topic of the poll.

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by jamie_macdonald » 17 Feb 2011 14:14

For me there is no doubt that the closer the sport and the more chance the outsider has of winning, the greater the sport is to watch.

Like in formula one where even with someone dominating, one crash can change the whole picture and turn the tables the other way, the more danger/difficult the task becomes the greater this seems pronounced as on edge and at the sports limit a mistake is far more costly and the pressure much greater than if not on the limit or not so skilled.

So the harder the sport the better, and the more chance of a "mix up" from normal results of a team/player dominating on a day to day basis.

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Zooz » 17 Feb 2011 14:19

whoops, as I said I didn't sleep :D
but I don't believe I told you what to do! Training in TM may be different from training in most sports, but it's still a general aspect of some forms of competition. Maybe I shouldn't have mentioned the TM-specific example though, if it's important to think globally. I was just thinking about it since that's how outsiders win in TM usually, like in this LE10 match (back when CMC/MD was still good :D) http://www.et-leagues.com/le10/report.php?matchid=224. We trained a bit less and they trained a bit more, and in the end they were the only team that beat us that league, despite being complete outsiders and finishing 2nd last in the division in the end :D

Training in many other sports is just building up general skills, not as specific as learning a track in TM, so it's hard to draw a general comparison for that one. But it certainly affects the odds. Is an outsider who trained for the specific match more than the champion still an outsider? :D

What Xis posted makes sense, it's like using more samples in statistic to reduce the effect of random noise. To increase the odds of something unusual happening such as an outsider win, you need fewer decisive moments (where you can achieve a result that counts towards the final score). The problem with that is doing that in a way that keeps the luck factor to a minimum, despite getting so few attempts. If you only have 3 tries to win, and in one of them something unlucky that wasn't really your fault happens, then you get a big handicap and it will seem unfair.

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Re: Define a good sport!

Post by Florent » 17 Feb 2011 16:59

Zooz wrote:Training in many other sports is just building up general skills, not as specific as learning a track in TM, so it's hard to draw a general comparison for that one. But it certainly affects the odds. Is an outsider who trained for the specific match more than the champion still an outsider? :D
To answer the question of the outsider, I would say 'no' If you can know, before the match starts, what are the level of the players, this is not the ranking that you should take care. In TM, if you do a Time Attack at the start of the competition, it gives the level. But even if you don't, the competitors themselves would see that one is going faster and that he his favorite by the final. Then, the question will be: "do you still want to have a chance that the outsider can win?" remains valid. Probably because the good player will be tired or not make his best match, or because you will shine!

But the question of training in a sport is a also an interesting one. We should think about it as well.

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